Expectations for 2010 from an American fan
Well, here were are a brand new season. I’m excited.
Now, I know what you’re probably saying;
“As a Jays fan? Why would you be?”
Well, as a Jays fan, let me tell you. I’m not going to go out of my way like a Cubs fan and say ‘this is the year!’ because its not. It doesn’t have to be. Come August, they’ll be crying anyway.
Re-building is a giant process and the Jays are near the bottom of the ladder. We’re in the cellar and if we won 75 games and placed 4th, this season would be a moral victory. It’s a process and this year is the beginning. The first step on our way to shock the AL East.
Its not going to pretty this year, but the experience is what will matter. This team is nearly as young as an experience collegiate team.
Lets start with the pitching rotation.
Average age of the pitching rotation: 27.2 years old
Oldest: Brian Tallet (32 years old)
Youngest: Ricky Romero / Brandon Morrow (25 years old)
Our ace (Shaun Marcum) is and 28-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery. He hasn’t pitched since mid-to-late 2008 season. Our No. 2 man is heading into his sophomore season. Our No. 3/4/5 (Morrow/Eveland/Tallet) guys have no clue if they’re starters or relievers. They may make a transition to the bullpen a few times throughout the year. Brett Cecil and Brad Mills will probably see time in a Jays uniform during the year. The main battle within the rotation right now will be between Tallet and Eveland for a spot once right hander Marc Rzepczynski returns from a broken pitching hand (which he foolishly broke trying to catch a ball coming back at him). Rzepcynski made a strong case last season as a rookie, he may make a surprise. Dustin McGowan may make an appearance this season, but don’t count on it. Watch for his return in 2011 though.
My prediction is that the bullpen will be the Jays’ largest surprise in 2010. Everyone will give a strong look at closer Jason Frasor. In Frasor’s first stint as closer in 2007, he struggled. But, last season he had a magnificent season. He pitched with a 2.50 ERA, while claiming 11 saves in 14 chances. He spent the majority of last year with a sub-2 ERA season, but slipped near the end. However, did log his most innings since 2005. Frasor’s talent has always been missing since cracking the majors in 2004, but ever since Frasor added the splitter to his arsenal, he has been great.
Casey Janssen is the guy to watch out for. He will probably start as the set-up guy, but may contend with Frasor for closer. Janssen, who has made a strong case in Spring Training, has proven to be better to a better relief pitcher than starter. This season, Janssen has yet to allow a run in 8 and 2/3 innings. In fact, Janssen has only surrendered one hit, while striking out 8 batters and walking one in his eight games of action. Watch out for a healthy Casey Janssen this season.
I don’t expect much from the new guy Kevin Gregg, but he can be valuable if he stays healthy. A healthy Scott Downs may make the closer role, too and don’t sleep on Jeremy Accardo, newcomer Merkin Valdez and last season’s surprise — Shawn Camp.
Hitting:
It’s much less older than the rotation and won’t be as much as inconsistent as the rotation. AA is where opposing pitchers may have to start attending when they face A&A (Aaron Hill and Adam Lind). Hill and Lind combined for 71 home runs and 222 RBI last season. Hill’s batting average dipped a little bit, but he can be a .300 hitter easily. Lind finished as one last season. They may be the most underrated batters in the majors.
Travis Snider needs to make a giant leap this season. He has the potential to hit .300, 40 HR, 120 RBI. Snider needs to man up this year. Yes, he is only 22, but this is the third year of major league action. It’s time to put the man-pants and knock in some runs.
If Vernon Wells’ wrist is healthy, he may have a great season at the dish. I’m talking 25 HR and 80 RBI stuff. The Jays’ bats are very potent when healthy and could help the Jays make a giant leap in their rebuilding process.
Watch out for Randy Ruiz, too. Ruiz is a great hitter that hasn’t had a major league chance. Ruiz hit 10 HR in 115 ABs late last season. Lind put up 11 HR in 290 AB in ’07, then went on to hit 35 last season. Ruiz puts up strong minor league stats, which seemed to carry over into the majors last season.
Rookie infielder Mike McCoy will add speed on the bases much like Brett Gardner did last season. McCoy has a 40+ stolen base season under his belt in the minors and his speed may come in handy during late-inning situations.
If Edwin Encarnacion can stay healthy, he may be a surprise at 3B. If his bat is strong enough, he could be a solid 2 or 6 hitter in the lineup. He was injured last season, but hit 26 HR in 2008. In 2007, he hit .280+ and 16 HR.
Catchers John Buck and Jose Molina will hold the fort down behind the plate until J.P. Arencibia arrives.
Expectations:
Although I stay strongly positive, it may not be a positive season. I’d be strongly happy in the 72-78-win column. The Jays may not reach 70 wins this season. The future is bright for the team, but 2010 is the first step. Its the largest step in the rebuilding process. It should give the young rotation a strong taste in the majors and build for the future.
If the Jays are looking at a 4th or 5th spot with Baltimore (unless Baltimore’s staff is strong this season)
Lind and Hill should have large seasons, while Snider, McCoy and Arencibia may make young strides in Toronto.
Kyle Drabek, David Cooper and Brett Wallace SHOULD make their major league debuts this season.
Toronto WILL forget about Roy Halladay and move on
Award Predictions:
2010 team MVP: Adam Lind
2010 team Cy Young winner: Shaun Marcum
2010 team Rookie of the Year: Randy Ruiz
2010 team Surprise of the Year: Lyle Overbay
The American Blue Jays Fan 